The hottest iphone5se can generate 5.5 billion yua

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Can iphone5se generate 5.5 billion revenue? Don't forget that its competitor is iphone7

recently, various news showed that the 4-inch iphone5se will be launched in March this year. It is reported that the iphone5se uses a 4-inch small screen, 2.5D curved glass and other designs, and is equipped with A9 processor. However, generally speaking, the iphone5se is only a conventional performance upgrade based on the iphone5s. According to Taiwan media DIGITIMES, it is expected that Apple's long-term supplier Foxconn and its successor Wistron technology will be responsible for the assembly of the company's upcoming 4-inch iPhone. At present, Apple has high hopes for the iphone5se. As for the future sales of iphone5se, analysts are also full of optimism that the situation is very good

for example, according to the prediction made by stevemilunovich, an analyst of UBS, not long ago, the iphone5se sold after the middle of March is expected to sell 30million units in the next year. At the same time, it may be listed and sold at the price of $500. It is predicted that the iphone5se will bring up to $1.95 billion in revenue and profit one year after its listing. Royal Bank of Canada capital market analyst Amit Amit daryanani is more optimistic that Apple's new 4-inch iPhone 5SE will help Apple generate $5.5 billion in revenue

but in my opinion, I'm afraid the future sales of iphone5se may disappoint these analysts. We know that according to the market data of smart LEGO actively looking for sustainable materials to replace ABS plastic released by market research agency Garter, iPhone sales fell for the first time in the history in the fourth quarter of 2015. That is, iPhone sales dropped from 74.83 million units in the same period of the previous year to 71.53 million units, resulting in Apple's smart market share dropping from 20.4% to 17.7% in the same period of the previous year. At present, apple is subject to the impact of the game of multiple factors, such as sales and profits not in line with market expectations, resulting in continuous fluctuations in Apple's share price. In the first three trading days of 2016, Apple's share price fell continuously, with a market value loss of nearly $50billion

therefore, Apple's consideration is that it is in urgent need of a time gap before iphone7 to save investors' expectations and more stable and sustainable profit expectations for the whole year. It should be known that the proportion of iPhone in Apple's latest quarterly financial report is as high as 68.06%, and the sustainable income brought by iphone6s to apple is about to hit the ceiling, which may have an extremely adverse impact on Apple's stock price

however, we know that with the stability of the US dollar index, the exchange rate factor that affects Apple's earnings decreases, and the iphone7 is extremely likely to pull Apple's share price back to its peak. Some analysts predict that iPhone sales will resume a 7% growth in 2017, reaching 251million units. However, the release time of iphone7 is this autumn, which is still a long time. However, Apple needs to quickly pull back the decline. At present, the sales of iphone6s will continue to be poor or there is no suspense in the next two quarters. Therefore, at this time, iphone5se has become a rescue product. According to Wall Street analysts, if iphone5se can sell more accessories and complete more apple pay transactions, it may further increase Apple's share price. Therefore, iphone5se, a product that is just a regular performance upgrade, has been entrusted with too many missions by apple. It not only aims to stop the decline in the short term and promote the upgrading of small screen users, but also to light up Apple's performance and drive up the stock price

but we have a question: is the market waiting for apple to come up with innovative products or an upgraded iPhone with a small screen? There is always a paradox in the market. Although Apple launched a large screen to make the sales and market value of iPhone reach an unprecedented peak, the market always believes that there is a huge market demand for small screens. Is this demand real or speculative

for apple, the small screen is a business that is disappearing or declining, but Apple has always had the initial feelings for the small screen, especially jobs' insistence on the 3.5-inch small screen made apple always have extremely strong feelings for the small screen. However, this emotion can easily make the strategy deviate from rationality. In the book brand relevance, there is a point that we should always believe in data rather than emotion, because the declining and disappearing businesses have great emotional power. We need to pay more attention to how the sales volume, price, market scale and data trend are displayed, otherwise it is easy to fall into the dilemma of strategic imbalance

the logic of the analysts is that many users like small iPhones, but because Apple doesn't update them, many of them still stick to the old iPhone 5C and 5S. Once Apple launches the small iPhone, this part of demand will be greatly released. Because we know that jobs' argument many years ago was that no one would like more than 3.5 inches. Although this view was shattered by the high sales of iphone6, analysts also have their own logic: Apple sold 46.6 million iphone5s and iphone5c in 2015, accounting for about 20% of the overall iPhone sales. Therefore, Apple's launch of iPhone 5SE is expected to attract these market demands for replacement

but is this really the case? The reason why people who insist on small iPhones do not change phones must be waiting for another small screen? In fact, the reason why small screen users insist on not changing their phones may not be due to the screen size, but the innovation of iphone6 and iphone6s does not meet their expectations, and 5S is relatively more cost-effective. They insist on using the small screen, not only waiting for another small screen, but also waiting for another major innovation. Users have long been tired of the fact that Apple's new products are just the norm of performance upgrading

at present, various insider exposures about iphone7 make users more expect major innovations that iphone7 may bring. For example, recently, the technology media Appleinsider disclosed several new patents applied by apple. These patents show that the iPhone may be equipped with a holographic display in the future. Some sources also exposed the design drawing of iphone7, which shows that Apple has added many new features and materials to it, and the iPhone 7 may use a super AMOLED display. In addition, it is reported that iphone7 has removed the 3.5mm headphone jack, and Apple will improve the speed of touch ID and have waterproof function for the first time. In addition, Apple has increased the reserve and investment of patents to reserve a patent foundation for the application of new functions of iPhone 7, including emergency mode patents, eye tracking technology, waterproof performance and other related patents. Even, the iPhone 7 may add wireless charging function. Apple is now looking for a battery IOS device supplier that meets Apple's higher quality requirements for the iphone7 in Chinese Mainland. In addition, it was reported earlier that Foxconn, an apple supplier, plans to spend money to build a sapphire glass factory in Taiwan to replace GT advanced technologies and apply new screen materials

driven by the rendering and promotion of various leftover materials that some manufacturers can only output the maximum force iphone7, many users' expectations for iphone7 have reached a peak. The possible major innovation of iphone7 makes many potential users wait and see. On the other hand, the number of users who need to change machines is constant. Generally speaking, most users who need to change machines will choose between iphone5se and iphone7. If more and more users demand iphone7, it means that the number of potential iphone5se users will continue to decrease, and there will be more hesitation. Moreover, some survey data also show this

according to a set of new data released by Baird, a market research organization, the results of their network survey on more than 1000 consumers in the United States show that the popularity of iPhone 7 is higher than that of iPhone 6 two years ago. According to the survey, 7% of the respondents said that they had few plans to buy iPhone 7 through this solution, while only 4% planned to buy iPhone 6 two years ago. It is understood that 20% of the current iPhone 6 or 6 plus users plan to buy iPhone 7, which is a very high proportion

surprisingly, the survey shows that small screen users have higher expectations for iphone7. The survey shows that 23.9% of the small screen users who own the iPhone 4S or the old iPhone plan to buy the iPhone 7. So to some extent, the iphone5se is not without competitors in the small screen market. Its competitor is the iphone7. Even in terms of market positioning, the iphone5se is a bit out of place. As we all know, the Asian market favors large screens, while the European and American markets with demand are high-end markets. It is also a misplacement in positioning to play a high-end market with higher performance and taste requirements with a weaker performance configuration. The author once talked about a point. In the future, the launch of iphone5se may be misaligned in Europe, America and Asia, which will have an impact on iPhone sales and inventory turnover, yield and supply, and then bring pressure on iPhone's overall profit

as mentioned earlier, analysts believe that Apple's cumulative sales of the 4-inch iphone5s and iphone5c accounted for one fifth in 2015. Therefore, Apple's launch of the iPhone 5SE is expected to attract these market demands. However, our analysis shows that these users are more likely to switch to the iphone7. The market expectation and demand of the iphone7 is the core factor that may suppress the release of demand and sales growth of the iphone5se

another negative effect of iphone5se product launch is that it leads to an increase in the pressure of iPhone supply chain parts production, which may affect the production capacity of iphone7. According to a recent DIGITIMES report, Taiwan's recent magnitude 6.4 earthquake has caused more damage to TSMC's production facilities than expected, and TSMC may be the exclusive supplier of Apple's A10 processor. Although TSMC initially said, The earthquake had a negative impact on the output of about 1% in 2016. However, after a detailed study on the extent of damage, it was found that the actual situation was much higher than expected, which may affect the chip supply of iphone7

the launch of iphone5se may further affect the capacity of iphone7. Currently, apple chip suppliers cirrus logic and analog devices are also asking their OEM and service providers to reserve considerable capacity to prepare for iphone7. It is reported that apple is also planning to cultivate Wistron technology into an iPhone assembler, and handle the assembly of some 5.5-inch iPhone 7 plus for apple. It can be seen that the production of iphone5se has further intensified the pressure on the existing supply chain of iphone7. Apple has invested too much time and opportunity cost into iphone5se, which is not conducive to ensuring iphone7 performance innovation, product production time turnover, inventory and yield

therefore, for technology driven products, timing is very important. Apple should choose an earlier time point to launch iphone5se to please this part of the unmet small screen market users. Although the small screen market demand does exist, it is a small market after all. The reason for the lack of feasibility of a too small niche market is that the operation, marketing and production costs are too high. In addition, at the key time of iphone7 release, the early release of iphone5se is not conducive to manufacturing the profit and sales growth curve of the whole year and driving up the stock price. On the contrary, the strong user demand of iphone7 suppresses the demand release of iphone5se which is only a performance upgrade. Iphone5se wants to achieve billions of dollars in revenue, but iphone7 will become a key obstacle. Iphone5se once

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